Ukraine, Year 3

“The war in Ukraine was avoidable,” the excellent director Werner Herzog correctly states in a recent interview. But then looking back at 75 years of the American National Security State, how many military misadventures they've largely, or in part, been responsible for were necessary? Borrowing the words of old General Eisenhower when asked about the accomplishments of his then vice-president Mr. Nixon, “If you give me a week, I might think of one.”

Then Herzog, German born, is now a long term resident of Los Angeles, adds a little history. I guess he's not been in Los Angeles long enough. He conducted an extensive interview with Gorbachev before his death and notes, “Gorbachev was quite bitter, so many missed opportunities. He himself moved 400,000 troops out of Poland and 5000 tanks and there was no reciprocity from the West — a missed opportunity.”

There was reciprocity. The National Security State looked to dump Gorbachev and replace him with the drunk, Yeltsin, who promised to break up the Soviet Union, something Gorbachev was against, followed by eight years of disastrous American policies toward Russia. How many Boomer Ukraine war supporters could name one Clinton era Russian policy, which helped create the oligarchies, wreak economic havoc upon the Russian populous, and in the end resulted in a Clinton supported Yeltsin stepping down and handpicking Putin as successor months before the 2000 election?

Herzog also points to Putin's early speech to the German Bundestag talking about “the common European House from the Urals to the Atlantic,” along with his early poking around for Russia to join NATO. If you want to understand the Ukraine War you have to ask how did a Russia that voluntarily dismantled the Soviet Union, purposely followed disastrous American economic advise for ten years, and wanted to become a full member of Europe, once again become Public Enemy #1?

The war has been nothing but a disaster for Ukraine and when America finally agrees to talks, Ukraine will get a much worse deal than if they had worked to never let the fighting begin in the first place. But then two years ago, the top American military brains were all crowing the war would be over quick, Russia was done.

The Wall Street Journal's long time foreign policy pooh-bah has a piece today titled, “Germany Should Have Listened to Trump.” That's funny. Besides Ukraine, no one has incurred greater costs from the war than Germany. The article's main point is Trump as president berated the Germans for buying Russian gas. Trump was wrong on this. It was better for the Germans and Russians to become more peacefully allied, but that wasn't in the interests of the American National Security State. Now, Germany has doubled down on its mistakes becoming overly reliant on American LNG.

As the war enters its third year, financial journalist John Author has nice cautionary piece, “It's dangerous to shrug off a long war,” but that requires historical perspective. Americans don't do history. Soon, we’ll all live in the loving, peaceful, embrace of AI, just look at the stock market.